Peak Oil – A Multiple Website Review
Introduction to Peak Oil
Dr. Marion King Hubbert developed a bell curve formula in 1956 to predict when oil production in the continental 48 United States would approach peak output. After this point, Hubbert contended, the amount of available oil (called reserves) would originate to decline, and eventually become unrecoverable. Hubbert’s analysis suggested that oil production in the U.S would peak in 1969, give or take one year. Since then, U.S. oil production has declined within 5% of Hubbert’s prediction in 1956, proving Hubbert honest. (Ivanhoe)
“Hubbert’s Peak,” or “Peak Oil,” is an industry term for an oil field’s all-time maximum rate of petroleum extraction, as charted on a curve. All oil fields have a bell curve shaped rate of production: the initial extraction is of oil that is under pressure, which is easier to extract. When half of the oil is removed, retrieving the remaining supplies becomes considerable more difficult, until the energy required to extract the oil is greater than the energy derived from the oil itself. At this point, the oil field is no longer viable, and production ceases.
The top 42 oil-producing nations are grouped into seven geographical regions: North America, South & Central America, Europe, the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. Presently (March, 2005), six of the seven world’s major oil producing regions have reached Peak Oil, and are now in the downward slope of their lifetime production cycles, with the Middle East estimated to reach Peak Oil in 2011. Aggregate Peak Oil for all regions is estimated to occur as soon as 2006.
Peak Oil means that the world’s oil supplies will become scarcer and more expensive during the 21st century, and the skyrocketing sign of gasoline in the United States has served to underscore this. According to a U.S. Department of Energy witness, “The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past ‘energy crisis’ experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.” (qtd. in Hirsch) Yet, the topic of Peak Oil on a worldwide scale goes woefully underreported by the news media. Highly detailed information has been available on the Internet for several years, and has helped the public become increasingly more aware of this subject. In this paper, I discuss three of the most well known websites that focus on the topic of Peak Oil – what it is, what it means, and what its effects could be to global civilization.
Ever-increasing ask for petroleum worldwide, coupled with severe permanent shortages, will beget severe economic and humanistic crises unlike anything previously imagined. The lack of petroleum will not only negatively affect transportation, but power, and most critically, food supplies. The world, as it is today, will simply no longer exist. The websites mentioned in this article are all valuable resources, and they represent hope that catastrophe will be avoided, through public awareness and timely, preventative action.
Website Descriptions
The Wolf at the Door is a UK-based website authored by Paul Thompson, a self-professed ordinary person who is “not an expert on oil.” His intention is to provide a primer on the current state of oil, and act as a starting point for further individual research. Thompson’s main reference materials are the BP Statistical Review and the ASPO News (The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas). The author compiles the data from these and other sources to create a provocative site written in plain language. His genuine concern for his fellow man is evident in the text, and he does not “preach” a doctrine, rather he presents the data with austere clarity and encourages the reader to draw his or her own conclusion.
Life After the Oil Rupture splashes its motto, “Deal with Reality, or Reality will Deal with you” across the top of every page. The site is a companion to the books The Oil Age is Over and The End of Suburbia. Matthew David Savinar, who is a lawyer by trade who has focused his legal research abilities on the subject of global oil depletion, authors both site and books. Savinar begins with a very comprehensive overview of the present oil dwelling on the site’s home page in the form of a letter to the site’s readers. The tone of the text is alarmist, with hints of wit and irreverence. When asked why he would use humor when confronting such a serious topic, Savinar replies with “The future is not going to be pretty. Develop a sense of humor now or have a nervous breakdown later.” He offers hope along with the dire warnings.
Die Off is known as “The Grandfather of all Peak Oil and population crash web sites.” (qtd. in Savinar) The site contains an extraordinary amount of highly scientific information, both from experts in related fields and journalists.
The bid of Peak Oil is the prominent topic, but the web site also goes into great depth about other issues concerning ecology, sustainability, and economics. It offers a wealth of highly researched papers backed with solid evidence. Virtually every fact presented is cited throughout every article on the plot. Die Off compensates for what it lacks in visual appeal with the quality, quantity and accuracy of its information.
Website Comparison and Contrast
The three sites all speak the urgency of Peak Oil, starting with their titles. The Wolf at the Door suggests the crisis (the Wolf) is at hand right now. In the site’s Introduction, the author states: “For years, the experts have been warning of the dangers of oil depletion. They have been accused of crying wolf. This time, the wolf really is at the door.” Life After the Oil Atomize speaks to the inevitability of the location, and creates a mindset in the reader to prepare mentally for what may be coming. Die Off matches the scientific tenor of its information with the use of a scientific term as a title, as “die off” is what occurs when a lack of resources causes dramatic reduction of a organisms’ population.
Each of the sites is geared for a specific audience. The Wolf at the Door uses simpler language and contains quick reference to terminology. It is aimed at the layperson, or someone who is completely strange with the subject who has been referred there by someone who is. Life After the Oil Crash assumes a slightly more sophisticated reader, but incorporates elements of wry humor and homily. Die Off is for those who are familiar with the topic and would like access to highly scientific data. Its layout requires that the reader have a good idea of what he or she is looking for first.
Visually, The Wolf at the Door has a far more modern look to it. It uses graphics and an appealing color scheme, which suits its intended audience. Life after the Oil Crash uses a stark black-and-white color scheme to underscore its stark message. Die Off uses no visual elements at all – just text on a white background.
Website Evaluation and Recommendations
The Wolf at the Door uses a clean layout with a straightforward navigational system. It is extremely user-friendly both in content and usability. I would recommend this site to anyone who is new to the Peak Oil subject. The writing level is basic enough to make the text accessible to wide range of readers, and the persistent sidebar navigation provides easy access to definitions of key terms and helpful link text to help users create their scheme through the site.
Life After the Oil Crash is not concerned with presenting itself as visually fair, but it is not difficult to navigate. Some pages contain a great deal of information and require an inordinate amount of manual scrolling to get through them. The author also makes consume of frequent hyperlinks within the text, for which I recommend a web browser that has tabbed browsing. A basic rule of web design is to design navigation that avoids forcing a user to use the “Back” button on the browser – this rule is broken. These last three points are my only negative points about the site, but I highly recommend visiting nevertheless. The writing is highly informative, easy to read, and provides an excellent source of information to learn from and share with others. At a Congressional hearing concerning Peak Oil, Congressman Bartlett of Maryland quoted this website at length.
Die Off has not updated its look since the mid 1990s, and as a result it is difficult to get an overview of all the information it contains. I would recommend this site to users who are very familiar to the topic or who require hard scientific data for research purposes. Navigation is difficult, but there is a search function to give the user a basic tool to look up specific keywords. Pound-for-pound, it remains the definitive online source for Peak Oil, ecology, sustainability, and environmental awareness. For example, it is the only place online where one can view information such as the Peak Oil graphs for the 42 major oil-producing nations or view all the complex, essential mathematical formulas industry scientists use to calculate past production and extrapolate future production capabilities. The visual aspects are completely subordinate to the information, which is completely forgivable in this case. The world’s need to know this information constitutes nothing less than an emergency.
Peak Oil, without question, represents the most dire emergency that humankind has yet to face. The three websites mentioned here provide Information that is critical to surviving the worldwide upheavals that will mark the end of the petroleum age. By explaining the situation in depth, and discussing solutions based on scientific evidence, the sites effectively educate anyone who reads them. They provide a valuable service to mankind by educating readers and raising public awareness of Peak Oil; and the greater the public’s awareness of this region, the better are the world’s chances of preventing a long-term disaster of inconceivable proportions.
Respources Consulted
Ivanhoe, L. F, “Potential of world’s significant oil provinces,” Oil and Gas Journal, Nov 18, 1986, pp. 164-168.
Duncan, Richard C. and Youngquist, Walter. “The World Petroleum Cycle” Petroleum Technology Transfer Council. Petroleum Engineering Program. University of Southern California. Los Angeles, CA. October 22, 1998 <http://dieoff.com/page133.htm>.
Hirsch, Robert et al. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. United States Dept. of Energy. February, 2005
Savinar, Matthew. Life After the Oil Fracture. 17 March, 2005 <http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Links.html>.
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